Mercy me.
A massive winter storm impacting much of the U.S. is taking a toll on the domestic box office as numerous communities and cities advise citizens so stay home. Overall revenue is expected to fall to the lowest point of the year to date, while it could also be the first weekend to come in behind the same frame in 2025.
The weekend’s winner will be Timur Bekmambetov‘ new thriller Mercy, starring Chris Pratt as a man who is on trial for murdering his wife. In a chilling development, he learns his fate rests in the hands of an artificial intelligence judge. MGM Amazon Studios is estimating a $12.6 million opening, in line with expectations, although some had hoped for closer to $15 millions.
The storm isn’t Mercy’s only challenge. Critics have snubbed the film, while audience exits are only so-so, including a B- Cinemascore.
Mercy does get bragging rights to being the film that finally toppled James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash after ruling the roost for the five previous weekends (several years ago, Avatar: The Way of Water kept the crown for seven weekends).
Fire & Ash, from 20th Century Fox, is looking at No. 2 finish with a projected $7 million or so, putting its domestic cume in the $380 million range. Fellow Disney animated blockbuster Zootopia 2, holding at No. 3, is predicted to bring in as much as $6 million as the record-breaking film notches another milestone in crossing the $400 million mark domestically. (It’s global haul is north an eye-popping $1.7 billion).
Director Paul Feig’s Sydney Sweeney-Amanda Seyfried vehicle The Housemaid also cotinues to clean up for Lionsgate. It’s holding at No. 4 in is sixth outing with an estimated weekend haul of $6 mllion. The females skewing film has earned $250 or more globally in a massive win.
Nia DaCosta’s elevated horror-zombie sequel 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple isn’t so lucky. After opening behind expectations at the MLK Holday box office, it’s falling to No. 5 in its sophomore outing with a projected $4.2 million for domestic total of just $21.4 million.
The fabled box office bump that movies can enjoy after landing top Academy Award nominations has diminished over the years, but can still be a factor. Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme, from A24, had been an overperformer even before landing 9 top nominations Jan. 22, including best picture and best actor Timothée Chalamet (most are betting he wins). This weekend, the film is set to come in No. 6 with an estimated $3.5 million, a drop of just 35 percent.
That could be the second-best hold of any film in the top behind Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet, another Oscar frontrunner that landed 8 nominations for Focus Features after winning best drama at the Golden Globes Jan. 11. The arthouse pic, which started off playing in select runs in November, expanded into a total of 1,276 theaters this weekend and tipped to round out the top 10 with $1.8 million for a domestic total approaching $18 million. Steven Spielberg and Sam Mendes are hitting the awards campaign trail hard for Zhao.
Staying relatively high up on the chart, or at No. 8, is an ongoing special 25th year anniversary rerelease of Peter Jackson’s The Lord of the Rings trilogy. Warner Bros. and Fathom, who are partnering on the event, which is expected to bring in a total $14 billion to $15 million.
Numbers will be updated Sunday morning.
