Universal‘s highly anticipated Wicked: For Good is tracking to open to a victorious $115 million-plus at the Thanksgiving box office, according to pre-release tracking. That would set yet another new record for a musical adaptation of a Broadway musical.
The second title in Jon M. Chu‘s ambitious big-screen adaptation of the iconic Broadway musical about the witches of Oz opens in North America Nov. 21, the weekend before the big feast. It’s also opening day-and-date around the globe.
Leading market research firm NRG has the female-fueled film debuting to $115 million domestically, but also provides a range suggesting it could come in closer to $120 million, according to sources with access to the data. Those insiders say it could even crack $120 million, based on the level of interest and awareness.
Sources say presales for the second installment is pacing well ahead of the first film, though Universal and the filmmakers are trying to manage expectations in sticking with a more conservative estimate of $115 million.
On the same weekend a year ago, the first Wicked soared to a record-breaking $112.5 million in its three-day debut, the best showing ever for a musical adaptation. It ultimately topped out at nearly $750 million at the worldwide box office, which is likewise the best showing ever for a Broadway musical adaptation, a genre that has been a tough nut for Hollywood to crack.
Wicked for Good reunites producer Marc Platt and Chu with stars Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo, whose iconic characters must deal with the consequences of the choices they made. Erivo plays Elphaba, aka the Wicked Witch of the West, while Grande plays Glinda the Good Witch. (Both are expected to be major players in the Oscar race. Ditto for the film.)
Last year, Wicked was tracking to start off with $85 million domestically, but obviously came in notably higher. Paramount’s Gladiator II also opened that weekend, earning a solid $55 million. This time out, Wicked For Good is the only studio tentpole debuting. The following Wednesday, Disney Animation’s Zootopia 2 hits theaters (that film won’t come on tracking until next week).
More to come.
