Halloween is shaping up to be scarier than expected for Hollywood and its exhibition partners, but not in a good way.
Domestic box office revenue for October 2025 is expected to come in at roughly $425 million — the worst showing in 27 years and the worst of the post-pandemic era, according to Comscore. This excludes October 2020, the heart of the COVID-19 pandemic, when revenue was a mere $55 million, powered by Christopher Nolan’s Tenet.
Otherwise, the last time October was this low was 1997, when combined ticket sales were $385.2 million, not adjusted for inflation. In 1998, revenue jumped to $455.6 million before crossing $600 million for the first time a year later in 1999. The new millennium brought steady gains, save for a few bumps in the road, before the pandemic hit.
Programming October — aside from Halloween-themed releases — was historically a chance for studios and indie distributors to take breathers following the summer blockbuster season and prepare for the year-end holidays. It’s also when they begin to launch their award films.
But as the calendar grew more crowded around the year-end holidays, studios had to start relying on off-peak months and began opening higher-profile films in October, culminating with a record $832.8 million showing in 2018, when Sony’s superhero pic Venom grossed $190 million in October alone, followed by awards contender A Star Is Born ($153.1 million) and the hit reboot of Halloween ($137.9 million).
What went so wrong this time? It was a perfect storm of not enough product due to the ongoing production delays leftover from the labor strikes, a horrible August and a relatively weak September (often, carry over titles amount for a large chunk of October revenue).
The harder truth to bear: many October titles simply didn’t resonate with general audiences. Disney’s long-awaited Tron: Ares is the month’s top earner, but has only brought in $63.4 million domestically to date. Excluding 2020, that’s the lowest showing for a film launching in October since DreamWorks SKG’ ‘s he Wallace & GromitMovie two decades ago in 2005.
Another major miss was Dwayne Johnson-starrer The Smashing Machine. Director Benny Safdie and specialty distributor A24’s R-rated drama had major awards and box ambitions, yet has earned a scant $11.4 million since its domestic debut over the Oct. 5-7 weekend and $19.7 million globally, a near-career worst for Johnson (admittedly, he viewed Smashing Machine as a chance to flex his acting muscle and make his first run at an Oscar).
If it weren’t for The Official Release Party of a Showgirl, Taylor Swift‘s 11th hour theatrical event tied to the release of her new album, things would be even worse. Billed as cinematic “experience,” versus a film, it brought in $34.2 million over the Oct. 3-5 weekend, crushing Smashing Machine. Japanese anime offerings Chainsaw Man: The Movie, which came in well ahead of expectations when topping the Oct. 24-25 weekend with $18 million, and September’s Demon Slayer Infinity were also unexpected heroes.
From Sony-division Crunchyroll, Chainsaw Man even came in ahead of Blumhouse and Universal holdover Black Phone 2, one of the few hits of the month. Conversely, Disney’s Bruce Springsteen biographical drama Deliver Me From Nowhere sang off-key in opening to $8.9 million domestically, behind expectations.
Oct. 23-25 was supposed to be the weekend when Warner Bros.’ Mortal Kombat II opened, but the pic was pushed back to May 2026. “That left a good-sized hole and there was nothing to really pick up the slack,” says Wall Street analyst Eric Handler of Roth MKM partners.
Comscore chief box office analyst Paul Dergerabedian says there was a lack of overall momentum following a miserable August and a weak September. “Now the heat is on for early- to mid-November titles including Predator: Badlands and The Running Man to bridge the gap between this rather slow period and the holiday blockbuster corridor,” he says, referring to Thanksgiving tentpoles Wicked: For Good (Nov. 21) and Zootopia 2 (Nov. 26).
For years, the traditional thinking was that October was a time when moviegoers wanted a break between summer tentpoles and year-event event pics. That attitude changed when 20th Century’s Taken 2 did huge business in 2013, helping to lead a then-October revenue record of $680 million.
The following year, October was analyzed from every direction as a launching pad for Oscar fare that also had broad commercial appeal, after the Sandra Bullock and George Clooney space drama Gravity helped propel revenue for the month $628 million. In 2012, revenue crossed $700 million for the first time, led by Gone Girl.
Another milestone was achieved in 2018 when combined ticket sales for the fall month cleared $800 million for the first and only time at $832.8 million. The reason? Tossing out the rule book, Sony used the month to open a comic book movie, Venom. It paid off. Venom grossed $213 million domestically, including October ticket sales of $190 million. (The film’s global haul was $856.1 million.)
Warner Bros. and DC followed suit when opening Joker in October 2019. Total ticket sales for the month came in at a combined $788.1 million, the second-best showing ever. Joker’s domestic share for the month was a record $286 million, on its way to topping out at $355 million domestically and an eye-popping $1.07 billion globally.
As fate would have it, the Venom franchise returned to deliver a huge post-pandemic win for theater owners when Let There Be Carnage, opening in late September 2021, racked up $190 million in October ticket sales. Total revenue for the month soared to $645 million, which remains the best showing of the post-pandemic era. Revenue slipped back to $485.1 million in 2022 — led by superhero pic Black Adam— but zoomed back up $567.7 million in 2023, thanks to Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour.
Revenue for the year to date continues to run ahead of last year by 3.3 percent, but the lead is too narrow for comfort, particularly considering revenue was up by 20 percent at the beginning of summer.
Everyone is keeping their fingers crossed that a strong November and December can help maintain that lead, so that domestic revenue for the year doesn’t slip behind last year’s $8.9 billion. It will be up to the Thanksgiving marquee, along with Christmas titles including James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash (Dec. 19) and the next SpongeBob movie (Dec. 19) to hold down the fort. There is also potential in Christmas titles Anacondas and awards player Marty Supreme, with a cast led by Timothée Chalamet.
But the no one is making bold predictions — even with Avatar waiting in the wings. Will there to be fiery victory or a pile of ashes? Says Dergarabdian: “There are many, variables.
