After a premiere in Washington D.C. packed with Trump acolytes, Amazon MGM political lightning rod documentary Melania is heading for about $8 million in wide release over its opening weekend.
While that would be a great start for a political documentary, all bets are off on the comparisons to traditional docs given the context around this Brett Ratner-directed feature. For one, Amazon spent about $40 million to license the film in a deal widely seen as a move to cozy up to the White House. And that’s before what sources have described as about $35 million in marketing costs.
Among politically charged docs that have opened wide, Michael Moore’s 2004 Fahrenheit 9/11 still holds the record for a $23.9 million bow from 868 theaters on its way to $119.2 million, not adjusted for inflation.
Melania, meanwhile, could benefit by promotion from the bully pulpit, as President Trump entreats his followers to see the film, while grassroots marketing campaigns from conservative groups are expected to send moviegoers to theaters in red states. It won’t be helped by movie critics, however, as early reviews from major media outlets have been scathing.
The film is opening opposite 20th Century’s Rachel McAdams thriller Send Help, a Sam Raimi-directed title that may open to $16 million or $18 million domestically. In a twist, indie movie Iron Lung from Mark Fischbach is also tipped to open in that range, so it could be a close race.
More to come.
